中国最优金融结构演化路径分析

    The Evolution Path Analysis for China's Optimal Financial Structure

    • 摘要: 为探究中国最优金融结构的演化路径,构建新古典增长模型分析了最优金融结构随要素禀赋结构的动态演化特征。基于中国1990—2015年30个省市的数据,运用面板分位数技术,分析了金融结构缺口对经济增长和全要素生产率边际效应的演化特征,并进一步研究了经济成长进程中银行和股票市场发展的经济增长效应的相对演化。研究结果显示:金融结构缺口与经济增长和全要素生产率皆呈负相关关系,表明最优金融结构存在;随着经济发展水平的提高,银行的经济增长效应逐渐下降,而股票市场的经济增长效应逐渐上升,表明中国最优金融结构应向市场主导的方向演化。

       

      Abstract: In order to explore the evolution path of China's optimal financial structure, a new classical growth model is built to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of the optimal financial structure with the endowment structure. With panel quantile technology, this paper explores the evolutionary characteristics of the financial structure gap in economic growth and the marginal effect of total factor productivity and analyzes the relative evolution of the economic pull effect of the development of the bank and the stock market with The improvement of the economic development level furthermore based on the data of 30 provinces and cities from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the financial structure gap is negatively correlated with economic growth and total factor productivity and this indicates that the optimal financial structure is present, along with the? improvement of economic development level, The economic growth effect of Banks is falling, and the economic growth effect of stock market is gradually rising,this show that the optimal financial structure is evolving towards the direction of the market-oriented.

       

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